The beginning of the year is the right time to develop investment strategies according to economic and political conditions.
This year, there are several investment risks, one of which is the 2019 Election. However, behind the risks there are also opportunities.
Elections usually create a velocity of money that is greater than normal conditions in society. With a larger turnover, the stock exchange is driven to move higher.
Director of PT Reliance Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk. (RELI) Sriwidjaja Rauf said the right strategy for investors at the beginning of the year was to reduce risk assets and increase the portion of assets with minimal risk.
“Earlier this year, the sentiment that hit quite a risk, especially global sentiment, where the effects of global trade tension began to be felt by China in manufacturing performance which fell close to the expansion level limit. From within the country, investors tend to wait and see because of election sentiment,” he explained official statement received by Bisnis.com on Friday (01/04/2019).
The shares that deserve to be observed and collected include construction, agricultural and consumer issuers such as PT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk. (WSKT), PT Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero) Tbk. (PTPP), PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk. (ADHI), PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk. (LSIP), PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk. (AALI), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk. (UNVR), PT HM Sampoerna Tbk. (HMSP), and PT Gudang Garam Tbk. (GGRM).
Another strategy that can be done is to look at the performance of large capitalized stocks in the past three years, with the consideration that it will soon be entering the dividend payment season. Sriwidjaja revealed that several stocks had a recurring pattern, namely their performance began to rise around November to February-March.
This momentum can be utilized by investors who like stocks with strong fundamentals to obtain relatively significant capital gains. For example, the shares of PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk. (INDF), PT Astra International Tbk. (ASII), PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (SMGR).
But, don’t just stick to these factors and forget about the performance of the listed issuers. In addition, pay attention to the technical and fundamental analysis and look at the outlook and sentiment that will be influential throughout the year.
After that, he continued, determine which sectors will be affected and what stocks are fundamentally cheap enough. See also the potential return rate.
According to RELI research, Indonesia’s manufacturing performance data recorded improvement and growth was above expectations, which was at the level of 51.2 from 50.4 in the previous period. Inflation is also relatively maintained at around 3%.
On the other hand, China’s manufacturing performance data showed contraction. The Caixin survey showed China’s manufacturing index was below the expansion level, which was 49.7, from the previous 50.1.
Sriwidjaja said that investors need to look at stocks that have low P / E and Return on Equity (ROE) above 20%. Also note that stocks that are oversold and try to rebound break their bearish trend.
He added that investment is needed to maintain and increase asset wealth and anticipate future uncertainties. For that, always set aside more income for investment.
The important thing to remember, said Sriwidjaja, is not to place all investment funds in one type of instrument. Then, discipline sets investment targets, both profit and cut loss.
If you want to invest in stocks, always identify the shares to be purchased in order to understand what the risks are and not follow along with others. Also check investment offers that come to the Financial Services Authority (OJK) to guarantee that investment and companies that manage them are not in trouble.